Self-driving cars are fast becoming the wave of the future. In this article, you’ll see the timelines for the release of self-driving cars by some top car manufacturers. But first, here’s what exactly constitutes a self-driving car.
What Is a self-driving car?
A self-driving car is a vehicle that can maneuver itself and drive on its own with intervention from the driver when needed. There are different levels of automation in self-driving vehicles, so the level to which the car can self-drive all depends on what level of automation the vehicle offers. When referring to self-driving cars, most manufacturers are referring to a level 4 or 5 automation car. Here is a look at the common definitions of automation levels:
Level 1 Automation
Level 1 automation means that the car can perform light steering and acceleration on its own. Anything outside of that is done by the driver themselves. Drivers must always stay alert and in complete control to avoid any dangerous situations.
Level 2 Automation
In level 2, the car can go on autopilot in some vehicles or cruise control as well as take some safety actions, but ultimately, the driver really needs to still pay attention at this point so that they can take control at any time when needed.
Level 3 Automation
Level 3 automation allows the driver to let the car manage some functions within certain environmental and traffic type conditions, but the driver will still need to maintain some control. Level 3 is a bit of a riskier kind of automation as some safety functions are passed off to the car and can become potentially dangerous. Many car manufacturers are looking at skipping any kind of level 3 automation and going directly to level 4 automation.
Level 4 Automation
With level 4, cars can drive themselves in almost all conditions and situations. Human intervention is not needed. Drivers may possibly program the car so that the automation is turned off. Benefits of level 4 automation are that the driver can be completely hands-off to the point that they can even lay back and sleep in the car.
Level 5 Automation
This would be a fully automated and self-driving car, in all conditions. Human intervention is not needed at all, such as in poor weather conditions or unmapped areas. In those conditions, the car could still drive and maneuver itself. There doesn’t need to be a passenger in this level of car at all.
Timelines
Most major car manufacturers are aiming to become self-driving after 2020 and into 2021. Major car companies such as GM, Ford, Tesla, Honda, Toyota and Volvo are all planning on entering the self-driving car market sometime in the near future if they haven’t already.
Honda
One of the world’s most popular brands, Honda, announced as long ago as 2016 that they would be including the technology of Waymo, a self-driving car company, in their vehicles. Honda’s plan was to have some form of a self-driving car on the road by 2020.
Honda did also purchase GM’s Cruise in order to create a self-driving car in conjunction with Cruise. Compared to other car companies, however, Honda has been slower to start up, where other companies have invested more heavily into self-driving car technology.
GM
Speaking of heavier hitters in the self-driving car arena, GM has invested a reported $581 million to acquire Cruise Automation. The plan for GM was to eventually put out thousands of self-driving cars in conjunction with Lyft.
Because GM has a 9% stake in Lyft, it’s all just a part of their strategy to put out some of the best autonomous cars on the market.
The advantage of collaborating with Lyft is that GM has an advantage over the market by providing cars that can be programmed to operate in certain mapped out geographic areas. This plan was delayed to launch after 2019, however.
Cruise has been testing cars in different cities and states in order to reach safety and deployment goals.
Tesla
Tesla’s plan for autonomous cars was to be enacted by the end of 2020. By 2021, most companies have talked about self-driving cars still being some years away, but Tesla is still planning to have some form of autonomous car out in the near future.
Ford
Ford was the first to invest a lot of money into the company Argo AI, a robotics startup, specifically about $1 billion. Ford and Argo AI then went on to invest $15 million in 2019 to create the Autonomous Vehicle Research Center at Carnegie Mellon University; The center is targeted to focus heavily on self-driving technology, including work on algorithms.
Ford planned on having a Level 4 vehicle out by 2021, meaning the car would be almost completely autonomous. A level 4 car would potentially not even have a gas pedal or steering wheel, and the driver would not need to take over at any point.
Toyota
Over the course of five years, Toyota invested $1 billion to their Toyota Research Institute in order to help speed up the development of robotics and AI. Their hopes were to launch a car by 2020; however, the CEO of the institute, Gill Pratt, was quoted as saying no one in the car or IT industry was even “close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy.”
Renault-Nissan
One company with a more realistic prediction was Renault-Nissan, who specified that 2025 would be the year for the driverless car. After partnering with Microsoft to work on their self-driving car initiative, the company talked about releasing 10 self-driving cars by the year 2020, with changes happening in steps, such as multi-lane highway driving, urban driving and more as technology advanced.
Volvo
Volvo partnered with Uber in order to work on their fleet of self-driving cars. With a $300 million joint venture, Volvo is putting out cars that Uber is using for their self-driving tests, and as of 2019, are still working together. Volvo’s CEO has mentioned that the company would like to put a self-driving car on the road by 2021.
It’s clear that most major car companies were predicting to have autonomous cars on the road by 2020, but this timeline was pushed back due to the need for more testing and research. Because of the huge amount of technology involved, it makes sense that most car companies will still need to take the time to learn how to fine-tune and develop the best self-driving car.
That being said, AI technology and self-driving cars won’t soon be going away. The idea of a fully autonomous car has firmly taken hold when considering the future car marketplace. And with the amount of money and time already invested in this emerging technology, it’s likely that autonomous driving will become a reality sooner than we expect.
With autonomous cars on the horizon, it’s fascinating to think about other leaps and strides the AI industry might take in 2021 and beyond.
